Agriculture

Agriculture

Agriculture

Since 1960, the world population has more than doubled, from approximately 2.9 billion in 1960 to more than 6.7 billion today. The demands placed on global agricultural production arising out of population and income growth almost tripled. Global agriculture has been successful in meeting this increase in demand. Agricultural growth contributes directly to food security. It also supports poverty reduction. And it acts as an engine of overall economic growth in much of the developing world. . Many of the least developed countries, particularly in sub-Sahara Africa and in marginal production environments across the developing world, continue to experience low or stagnant agricultural productivity, rising food deficits, and high levels of hunger and poverty. By 2050, world population is projected to grow to between 9 and 10 billion people. Most of the growth is expected to occur in poor developing countries, where income elasticity of demand for food continues to be high. The population increase, combined with moderately high income growth, could result in a more than 70 %3 increase in demand for food and other agricultural products by 2050.

Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion, a forecast of 100–110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. If current trends of greater agricultural intensification in richer nations and greater land clearing in poorer nations were to continue, ∼1 billion ha of land would be cleared globally by 2050,

Global demand for agricultural crops is increasing, and may continue to do so for decades, propelled by a 2.3 billion person increase in global population and greater per capita incomes anticipated through midcentury. Both land clearing and more intensive use of existing croplands could contribute to the increased crop production needed to meet such demand.

Imports of grain globally increased more than fivefold between 1960 and 2013 as more nations turned to international markets to help meet domestic food demand. For some countries, the imported share of domestic grain consumption has risen substantially. In 2013, more than a third of the world’s nations—77 in all—imported at least 25 percent of the major grains they needed. This compares to just 49 countries in 1961, an increase of 57 percent over half a century.

The rise of the developing world and the weakening of many developed markets, especially Europe, are two global irreversible trends. The rise of the developing world will have a huge impact on demand. It is expected that by 2050 there will be about 9 billion people in the world but they will be eating as much food as 13 billion people at today’s nutritional levels. To meet such an increase in demand, global food output will have to double over the next four decades.

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